Next Test for the Consumer: Home Depot and Walmart Anchor Retail Earnings Week
Once this week's AI-heavy slate clears, the earnings calendar changes character. The week of August 17 belongs to the big-box retailers, with Home Depot scheduled for Tuesday, August 18 and Walmart for Thursday, August 20, according to previews from Yahoo Finance and Barchart. Between them, the two chains touch home improvement, groceries, discretionary goods and advertising, making the pair the closest thing to a single-week census of the U.S. consumer.
For Home Depot, analysts expect second-quarter revenue of about $47.5 billion and earnings of $4.71 per share, barely above the $4.68 earned a year earlier, per Yahoo Finance. The muted profit growth expectation follows a first quarter in which the retailer beat on both lines, posting adjusted earnings of $3.43 per share against a $3.41 consensus on revenue of $41.77 billion, up 5% year over year.
The stock carries a valuation question into the print. Yahoo Finance notes Home Depot shares have traded roughly flat to slightly higher in 2026, lagging the S&P 500, yet still fetch about 23.5 times forward earnings versus a specialty-retail average near 20 times. Analysts hold a Moderate Buy consensus with an average target of $368.38, roughly 5% above recent levels, and will focus on comparable-store sales, professional contractor demand, digital growth and any change to full-year guidance.
Walmart's setup is more complicated. The Street is looking for fiscal second-quarter revenue near $186.9 billion and adjusted earnings of $0.73 per share, up 7.4% year over year, per Barchart. The company enters the report on a beat streak: first-quarter revenue rose 7% to $177.8 billion with adjusted earnings of $0.66, both ahead of estimates, powered by 26% global e-commerce growth and 37% growth in digital advertising.
The stock, however, has been penalized for caution. Barchart reports Walmart shares peaked at $135.15 in May, then fell 7.27% after management paired maintained full-year targets, 3.5% to 4.5% sales growth and 6% to 8% adjusted operating income growth, with a second-quarter outlook that disappointed the market. Shares recently sat about 16.8% below that May high and are up just over 1% for the year, even as analysts hold a Strong Buy consensus with a mean target of $139.87.
The macro read may matter as much as the numbers. This season has been dominated by AI infrastructure spending, and FactSet's data show companies beating estimates at historically elevated rates, but direct evidence on household spending has been thinner. Simon Property's guidance raise this week, built on accelerating mall traffic and 13.9% growth in tenant sales per square foot, argues the consumer is holding up. Home Depot and Walmart will either corroborate that or complicate it.
Recent sessions suggest the bar for both retailers sits where it has all season: on the outlook. Walmart's May selloff after a cautious quarter-ahead forecast, like the punishment absorbed by Insulet and On Holding for modest guidance trims, shows investors are trading forward numbers, not trailing ones. With inflation data landing this week and both retailers reporting against record-high indexes, next week's prints will be graded on what management says about the fall, not the summer.
